Analysis and modeling of land-use and land-cover change in Sintra-Cascais area

This paper shows a Geographical Information Systems & Science (GISc) approach for modeling land use and land cover change (LUCC) in a rapid urban growing region of Portugal. The SintraCascais area is integrated in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area which faced unparalleled rates of urbanization in the last thirty years. The study area is particula rly sensitive as it contains the Natural Park of Sintra-Cascais which is subject to intensive anthropogenic pressure. Three Landsat images (TM 1989, TM 1994 and ETM+ 2000) were classified in three major land use/cover classes: woodland, grassland and impervious. A stochastic model was used to estimate the evolution of these classes for year 2006 and evaluate the importance of the natural park in the land use and land cover dynamics of this region. Robustness of the model is assessed by comparing estimated year 2000 classification against real year 2000 classification. Description and analysis of LUCC is made using selected spatial metrics. Results demonstrate that the natural park plays an important role in preventing the increase in the impermeabilization of soil in this region.